PMP Blog

Problem Recognition Estimate at completion is really important to management in order to forecast the time and cost at project completion. These series of blogs were created to discuss each method individually and then in this blog will compare the results and select the best alternative. Feasible alternative The Guild of Project Controls Compendium and Reference suggest using three main forecasting/ estimation techniques: -        Independent estimate at completion (IEACs) -        Monte Carlo Simulation -        Best Fit Analysis of Alternatives a.        IEACs: BAC, BCWP, and ACWP are used along with CPI and SPI values in order to calculate the EAC for different scenarios. b.       Monte Carlo Simulation: BAC is used as starting point and allow for random function with 0.5% difference from the original value. This is repeated 1000 times in order to generate an average, maximum and minimum values. c.        Best Fit: ACWP data points are used to plot th

Problem Recognition In W8 & W9 Blogs, I discussed about using IEACs and Monte Carlo Simulation methods in order to forecast the possible progress for the coming weeks. In this blog, I will use the Best Fit in order to estimate the progress. Feasible alternative The Guild of Project Controls Compendium and Reference suggest using three main forecasting/ estimation techniques: -        Independent estimate at completion (IEAC) -        Monte Carlo Simulation -        Best Fit Analysis of MS Excel Best Fit Alternative This method will depend on the actual cost of work performed up until week 7 of PMP Course. The table below shows the ACWP 7 weeks of the PMP course project: Table 1: 7 Weeks ACWP of PMP Course Now we use three trendlines in order to give us three scenarios: a.        Linear Regression (Worst Case Scenario) b.       Polynomial 2 nd Order (Most Likely) c.        Logarithmic Regression (Best Case Scenario) The three trendlines f

Problem Recognition In W8 Blog, I discussed about using IEACs method in order to forecast the possible progress for the coming weeks. In this blog, I will use the Monte Carlo Simulation in order to estimate the progress. I am going to use MS Excel to run the simulation. Feasible alternative The Guild of Project Controls Compendium and Reference suggest using three main furcating/ estimation techniques: -        Independent estimate at completion (IEAC) -        Monte Carlo Simulation -        Best Fit Analysis of Monte Carlo Simulation Alternative The table below shows the current progress of the PMP course project: Table 1: Up to W6 PMP Course Progress Now we start with the original budget at completion and allow for 0.5% deviation from the original. Then, if the random number is higher than 0.5%, it will take the above number and add to it the 0.5% and if it is less it will take the above number again but subtract from it the 0.5%. In other words, we are us

Problem Recognition As we are approximately in the middle of PMP course duration, it is important to forecast the cost and time for the coming weeks. With this, we can give the client some comfort on how the project is going to go. Moreover, another objective of this and coming blogs is to be able to use different tools and techniques that can be used to present different scenarios to the management. Feasible alternative The Guild of Project Controls Compendium and Reference suggest using three main furcating/ estimation techniques: -         Independent estimate at completion (IEACs) -         Monte Carlo Simulation -         Best Fit Outcomes of IEAC Alternative ·           IEAC5 = ACWP + (BAC – BCWP) ·           IEAC1 = ACWP + ((BAC – BCWP) / CPI) ·           IEAC2 = ACWP + ((BAC – BCWP) / SPI) ·           IEAC3 = ACWP + ((BAC – BCWP) / CPI * SPI) ·           IEAC4 = ACWP + ((BAC – BCWP) / ((0.2 * SPI) + (0.8 * CPI)) Method Assumption Commen

W7__Hamda__ Monte Carlo simulation for identified Risks during monthly invoice processing and payment) __ 1-      Problem Definition Under Clients Contract & Interface department there are several number of tasks that some of them must be done in monthly basis according to certain clause in the purchase agreement. One of these tasks is processing the monthly invoice which is submitted in monthly basis from the project company (which is known as a Generator) to the Buyer. Processing the monthly invoices can be considered as a small project under CCI department since it has START and FINISH Date to be completed. The Generator in each month (Belling period) shall submit an Invoice to the Buyer which describes the different charges according to its product (Power/Water). At the date of receiving the invoice, the Contract team shall start processing the invoice and on or before the Due Date the buyer shall pay all the payments to the Generator. If the payment is not payed to