W7_Hilal_Individual Re-baseline (Part 1)

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Problem Recognition

As PMP course progresses, we are facing the problem of not meeting the baseline because of delays. The client suggested that we need to re-baseline with the most efficient number of man-hours required to complete the project on time. Therefore, the first step we need is to use learning curves in order to see how effective is to do a re-baseline.

Feasible alternative

Basically, the feasible alternatives are either to stick to the original baseline or to use the new baseline depending the results we get from the learning curves.

Outcomes of alternative

Below are the planned and actual man-hours for weekly reports and blog postings:
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
W9
W10
W11
W12
W13
Weekly Reports (Planned)
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3
3
3
3
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
Weekly Reports (Actual)
1.5
1
1
1
1
1







Weekly Blogs (Planned)
4
4
4
4
3
3.5
3
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
Weekly Blogs (Actual)
6
4
4
4
3
3








Table 1: Planned and Actual Man-Hours of Weekly Reports and Blog Postings.

The learning curve is the rate of a person's progress in gaining experience or new skills. The slope of the learning curve represents the rate in which learning translates into cost savings for a company. The steeper the slope, the higher the cost savings per unit of output.

Refer to the power trend line approach (Y=ax-b) as explained in Sullivan’s Engineering Economy:
Zu = K(un)
where:
u = the output unit number
Zu = the number of input resource units needed to produce output unit u
K = the number of input resource units needed to produce the first output unit
S = the learning curve slope parameter expressed as a decimal (can be calculated S = 2n)
n = log s/log 2 = learning curve exponent


Figure 1: Trend line for Actual Man-Hours of Weekly Report
The current learning curve on the weekly report from W1 to W6 is 86.9%


Figure 2: Trend line of Actual Man-Hours of Blog Postings
The current learning curve on blog postings from W1 to W6 is 77.9%
Plan
Learning Curve Analysis
Week
Unit Time
Cum Total
No Reports
Unit Time
Cum Total
Cum Average
1
3.5
3.5
1
1.336
1.336
1.336
2
3.5
7
2
1.161
2.496
1.248
3
3.5
10.5
3
1.069
3.565
1.188
4
3.5
14
4
1.008
4.574
1.143
5
3
17
5
0.964
5.537
1.107
6
3
20
6
0.929
6.466
1.078
7
3
23
7
0.900
7.366
1.052
8
3.5
26.5
8
0.876
8.241
1.030
9
1.5
28
9
0.855
9.097
1.011
10
1.5
29.5
10
0.837
9.934
0.993
11
1.5
31
11
0.821
10.755
0.978
12
1.5
32.5
12
0.807
11.562
0.963
13
1.5
34
13
0.794
12.355
0.95
Table 2:Learning Curve Analysis of Weekly Report
Plan
Learning Curve Analysis
Week
Unit Time
Cum Total
No Blogs
Unit Time
Cum Total
Cum Average
1
4
4
1
5.78
5.78
5.78
2
4
8
2
4.50
10.27
5.14
3
4
12
3
3.88
14.16
4.72
4
4
16
4
3.50
17.66
4.41
5
3
19
5
3.23
20.89
4.18
6
3.5
22.5
6
3.02
23.91
3.99
7
3
25.5
7
2.86
26.77
3.82
8
3.5
29
8
2.73
29.50
3.69
9
3.5
32.5
9
2.61
32.11
3.57
10
3.5
36
10
2.52
34.63
3.46
11
3.5
39.5
11
2.43
37.06
3.37
12
3.5
43
12
2.36
39.41
3.28
13
3.5
46.5
13
2.29
41.70
3.21
Table 3: Learning Curve Analysis for Blog Postings

Acceptance Criteria

We are basically looking for less man-hours with higher efficiency to achieve the key milestones. Therefore, the alternative with less man-hours per blog or per report will be accepted.

Acceptance Criteria vs Feasible Alternative


Figure 3: Comparison between Planned, Unit Time and Cumm Average Man-Hours for Weekly Reports



Figure 4: Comparison between Planned, Unit Time and Cumm Average Man-Hours for Blog Postings

Preferred Alternative

 For weekly reports the estimated total average man-hours per report is 0.95 hours/report.
For Blog postings the estimated total average man-hours per blog is 3.2 hours/ blog.
Both of these values are well under the planned values therefore, we select to use new values to rebaseline.

Tracking/ reporting plan

The next step is to estimate at completion methods to check the results of the learning curve and a weekly evaluation of the progress should be done to update the learning curve on weekly reports and blog postings.

References

Darwito, R. (2015). W09_RD_ Team Weekly Report Learning Curve | GARUDA AACE 2015. Retrieved from https://garudaaace2015.wordpress.com/2015/05/03/w09_rd_-team-weekly-report-learning-curve/
Humphreys, G. C. (2002). Lerning Curve. In Project management using earned value (3rd ed.). Orange, CA: Humphreys & Assoc.
Sullivan, W.G., Wick, E. M., Koelling, C.P. (2012). Engineering Economy, Fifteenth Edition, Pearson, Chapter 3, 108-111.

Learning Curve. (2017). Retrieved from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/learning-curve.asp#ixzz51Xp7SKct 

Comments

  1. Dr. PDGDecember 18, 2017 at 3:25 AM

    AWESOME posting Hilal!!! Excellent... As so many of your colleagues are working on OPWP processes and process improvements, they need to be aware of this factor and be sure to consider applying it when analyzing their recommended process improvements.

    Looking forward to seeing your rebaseline completed.

    BR,
    Dr. PDG, Jakarta

    ReplyDelete

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